Short for time today, so only a quick update.
Weekly Overview
Look out for FOMC minutes release on Wednesday and employment data on Thursday and Friday. A higher reading on NFP on Friday would give a further boost for USD and likely break above 105.5 on DXY (though that could happen overnight on Tuesday due to RBA int rate decision on AUD). While worth watching DXY it does not always translates into Bitcoin’s price action following it.
Due to a 4th of July holiday in US, we had little to no action today with BTC settling closer to 20k, but there was an increase in leverage ratio and it is getting closer to new ATH fast. Leverage building up like that without any real move up in price, only adding to the likelihood of another strong move down coming up soon.
I’ve highlighted last ATH which as you can see happened shortly before the latest strong sell off. Of course it is not always as immediate as on 6th of June, but you could not go wrong exiting your long positions shortly after new ATH or enter Short trades.
Trade Opportunities
My outlook for the next few weeks at least, has not changed, I am waiting for the right setup to re-enter Short positions, most likely when BTC attempts a re-test of 200WMA (around 22.5k). As you know I closely monitor on-chain data that has been giving early warning signals very accurately this year before all the sell-offs, so as mentioned above first warning might come this week from Bitcoin’s leverage ratio.
For those that don’t like or trust on-chain data, you can even see this price range aligning on 4h BTC chart using my CryptoGDSS template I shared few weeks ago with what would be overbought setup on RSI, BB and Wave oscillators as highlighted below.
The above of course is just for those that are actively trading, I don’t recommend taking any extra risks for less experienced or those that only seek to long term invest. BUY ZONE purely from technical analysis point of view has already started so as mentioned in my last newsletter, keep buying on a weekly basis with small amounts and once on-chain data confirms the potential lows of this bear market are in it will be time to go heavier with amounts spent.
That is it from me today. Stick to main exchanges as amount of FUD is growing fast around some of the centralized exchanges, whether true or not, best to be cautious. Only keep there what you need to execute your trades or buys and then if possible move Bitcoin and your other top assets into cold storage or at least a hot wallet.
Thanks Gigi, love your work mate