It’s been a while I know, but to be honest not much happened in terms of Bitcoin price movement since mid August, ranging between 18.5-22.5, despite numerous macro roller-coaster data points and events. USD and stock market been more volatile than BTC which seems odd, but maybe that means we are tiny bit closer to Bitcoin becoming true digital store of value replacing worthless FIAT currencies (I am sure those living in UK felt the pain already with £ crash).
Resist the FOMO
Altcoins as always doing their own thing, most going lower, some having their 5mins claim to fame like Aptos that draw people in after ICO so private buyers can cash in. Plenty of crypto YT and Twitter posts that jump on any opportunity to be bullish and get you to buy next shiny “thing”. Another 1000x shitcoin they bought before posting, so you can pump the price and they can make a quick 3-10x, as those low cap altcoins 1-5m in mcap don’t need much buying pressure to blast upwards.
This is nothing new and people don’t learn, so as these patterns repeat you could make some money doing quick trades on the new popular, widely talked about project like DOGE right now. It has gone parabolic only because Elon Musk finally bought Twitter, so investors still hope he will use Doge as it’s go to blockchain, which is highly unlikely especially if you consider that Binance chipped in 500m so they own a tiny piece of Twitter with Elon. That could mean any future developments on Twitter to become the go to app for EVERYTHING from payments, social network or ordering a taxi using blockchain is more likely to be done in co-op with Binance not Doge.
Either way if you remember I wrote about a possible trade opportunity when the Twitter saga started so if any of you bought Doge back then are now in profit. Watch the price action and ride it out, if Bitcoin and stock market will continue this rally, Doge could quickly hit 17c.
Most important part though is to resist the urge to mass buy right now, we are at crossroads, with macro uncertainty and crypto prices after recent small pump it is best to wait on what happens in November and let them come back down a bit.
If you have been buying regularly since June when advised, that most sensible approach is to just buy weekly, you are in a good position now and no need to FOMO. In few years time looking back it won’t matter if you bought BTC at 18k or 20k.
November - Pump or Dump?
Historically for Bitcoin, winter during the first main bear cycle year, is always bad.
2014 Oct to Jan 2015 - 44% price drop
2018 Oct to Jan 2019 - 48% price drop
2022 Oct to Jan 2023 - ??? 10-11k target range for BTC is still very likely despite October looking to close in green
Naturally we should expect the same this time, even though there is constant talk of FED pivot, slowing down interest rates hikes, inflation going down, even recession data points, nothing seems to be able to keep risk on assets from trying to go up. There is very little logic in it apart from political pressure in US due to mid-term elections on 8th of Nov and big players manipulating the markets to suck retail investors dry.
J Powell knows they have to hike 75pts next week and most likely stick with 50pts in December, without giving anything away on their plans to pause interest rates hikes in 2023, otherwise stock market is likely to explode upwards, general optimism return and he can say goodbye to their inflation fight ending anytime soon.
They have to see more data on inflation and labor market before any decisions to slow down/pause without causing a massive rally on risk-on assets.
I still think we will see final capitulation event with Bitcoin heading towards 11k and SPX to 3100-3400 range before end of year.
Best thing you can do in November is focus on researching medium and small mcap crypto projects, while DCA weekly/monthly until we are clearly riding rockets up and Bitcoin is above 25k.
Thank you for all support messages while I was not posting, I will do my best to get back to regular newsletter, but I do post on Twitter more frequently, including some trading setups, so please follow me there too.
Another excellent article and roundup.