General Crypto SHORT setup
SELL SIGNAL ¦ LEVERAGE ATH ¦ LONGS OVEREXTENDED
As some of CryptoG subscribers are active traders and others just want to learn through examples, I will start expanding on the setups I share on TradingView platform as much as time allows here. Sometimes it could be just a short post from CryptoGDSS template to Buy or a Sell (take profits) setup, other times a setup triggered from on-chain data analysis.
Last night BTC, ETH and in general TOTAL crypto market reached my most likely targets for the recovery from recent sell-off. Before I go into more details please note what I mentioned in my regular newsletter, that NFP numbers today and CPI data next week will be key for how the moves play out in the coming weeks, whether we continue this small rally closer towards 25k or we drop sharply at least back to last low waiting for FOMC meeting on 27th of July.
BTC analysis
The target for rally was likely to be the 200WMA (around 22.5k) and we have tested this from below last night, where this week’s candle closes will be very important. Closing below 22.5 should act as confirmation that this bear market is far from over and much lower prices are to be expected.
Looking at lower timeframes 1h/4h, we are already in overbought territory that very closely resembles setup from early June. On the screenshot below you can also see how you can use the CryptoGDSS template to take only most reliable setups, assuming these align with predominant trend and macro outlook.
You can find more details on the 1h/4h confluence using that template in the link below.
You can also see below on TOTAL crypto mcap chart confirmation of that setup applies to the whole crypto market with strong resistance around 950B even though initially I thought we might see market moving closer to 1T, there is a lot of weakness in digital assets.
Another key metric to alert us that another sell-off is coming is Leverage ratio hitting new ATH. I’ve highlighted on below chart only the last ATH, but you can clearly see previously it followed the same pattern even if not immediately the upside was minimal before a strong move down.
This rise in leverage was very sharp and while in the last 6-7 days we had Bulls dominating with their LONG positions as seen on the Funding rates chart below, that domination and consecutive grouping of Green candles (meaning more Longs than Shorts), normally also precedes a move to the downside.
Considering the rise in BTC’s price wasn’t very impressive I think puts an easy target on Bulls that already took leveraged LONG positions around 21-22k.
ETH analysis
Won’t be going into too much details on Ethereum, as in general it will follow the same direction as whole crypto market, especially if we consider that it hit same areas of interest when looking at CryptoG template.
Target price was 1250 and if you have missed it to either take some profits from entering on ETH around 1000 or just looking to short, I think its worth waiting for the US session this afternoon first and see the NFP numbers first. If a lower or as expected print shows it is likely we will see further move up, if numbers are higher then you might want to react quickly as we might not see 1200 anytime soon.
Same could be applied to BTC that already dropped from 22k area, shortly after I made my original TV idea post this morning.
Either way whether you take any of these trades or just use it as learning exercise please drop a comment if you have any questions.
Hiya, is there somewhere on your site that shows the ins and outs of how to use CryptoGDSS?
I'm not a trader nor a TA guy but would like to learn more; also I'm relatively new to your site
TIA and thanks for your weekly, detailed opinions and information regarding the crypto market